In the remote and volcanically active Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East, a unique population of high-altitude mammals is facing a dramatic and mysterious decline. Scientists studying the black-capped marmots in the caldera of the Krasheninnikov volcano have reported a significant crash in numbers, raising alarms about the health of this fragile ecosystem, squeezed between the pressures of climate change and geological turmoil.
A recent census conducted by researchers from the Kronotsky Nature Reserve counted only 20 marmots in a key monitoring area, a stark drop from 26 individuals in 2023 and 23 in 2022. The long-term trend is even more concerning. This same colony, which numbered over 200 marmots in the 1990s and stood at 54 as recently as 2011, has seen its population plummet by more than 90% over three decades, leaving scientists scrambling to pinpoint the exact causes.
These hardy rodents, part of the squirrel family, have adapted to an extreme existence, living at altitudes above 1,000 meters amidst the stark, frozen lava flows of ancient eruptions. The colony within the Krasheninnikov caldera is one of the most studied in the region, serving as a vital barometer for the overall health of the species across the vast, inaccessible territories of the Kronotsky Reserve.
Researchers believe a combination of factors is likely responsible for the decline, with climate change being a primary suspect. Black-capped marmots rely on a deep layer of snow to insulate their burrows during their long winter hibernation. Milder winters with less snowfall leave their shelters exposed to freezing temperatures, drastically reducing their chances of survival. This phenomenon is not isolated to Kamchatka, as similar declines have been observed in other regions inhabited by the species.
Adding to the environmental pressure is the constant threat of natural disaster. The marmots’ home is a landscape of active volcanoes. According to the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT), a recent eruption of the Krasheninnikov volcano may have directly impacted the colony. While ashfall over their habitat was likely minimal, a lava flow that descended the volcano’s northwestern slope could have encroached upon the northern part of their territory, forcing some of the animals to flee and abandon their homes.
The fate of Kamchatka’s black-capped marmots hangs in the balance as they navigate a perilous world of shifting climate patterns and fiery geological events. For scientists, the struggle of these resilient creatures offers a critical window into the profound challenges facing unique wildlife in some of the planet’s most extreme and rapidly changing environments.